Alexander Loveland The 2025-26 NBA MVP race is shaping up to deliver one of the most intense MVP races in recent memory. With many star players returning to the league from last season, this year’s MVP race will be as close as ever. The returning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is considered by many the favorite. Last season, he averaged just under 33 points per game on the championship-winning team. The MVP runner-up last season, Nikola Jokic, will have a chip on his shoulder. He averaged a triple-double a game, yet he didn’t win. The third major MVP candidate is Luka Doncic. This will be his first full season after the blockbuster trade and will surely motivate him.
Lead candidates
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off the best season of his career so far. He and his team finished 68-14 last season, making them one of the best teams in League history. The Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t made any major changes to their roster this offseason. So it’s expected that they will have a similar performance next season.
Nikola Jokic is also coming off of the greatest season of his career, also one of the greatest statistical seasons the league has ever seen. Last season, he achieved the highest averages in points, rebounds, assists, and steals of his career, while also setting a new career high in 3-point percentage. After being snubbed from MVP last season, he’s surely gonna have some motivation to win it this year.
Embed from Getty ImagesLuka Doncic just finished the weirdest season of his career. He started the season off as a Dallas Maverick, and he led the team in nearly every statistical category. He was arguably the best player in the playoffs the season prior, and then his team decided to trade him to the Los Angeles Lakers. There, he picked up where he left off with the Mavericks, averaging the same points, rebounds, and assists for both teams. Luka Doncic will be entering the season with something to prove.
Embed from Getty ImagesDark Horses
The biggest dark horses for the 2025-26 NBA season are likely to be Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and Anthony Edwards. Each of the three has a completely different style from the table. Giannis Antetokounmpo, a proven champion, is looking to win another MVP after injuries have slowed him down in past seasons. Victor Wembanyama is coming off a season that was cut short by deep vein thrombosis. Fans have high expectations for Anthony Edwards, and he’s coming off arguably his most successful season of his career so far, leading his team all the way to the Western Conference Finals.
Embed from Getty ImagesStats vs storylines
A notable historical trend is that the MVP has often been on the best team. Six out of the last 10 MVPs have finished first in their conference at the end of the regular season. The only MVPs to finish outside of the top 3 in their conference standings were Russell Westbrook in 2016-17 and Nikola Jokic in 2021-22. Another critical thing to pay attention to is voter fatigue. NBA voter fatigue is when award voters become bored or tired of voting for the same star player every year. This leads them to favor younger players even if their season wasn’t as good. The most recent example is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning the 2024-2025 NBA MVP over Nikola Jokic, despite Nikola Jokic averaging a triple-double the entire season.
Injuries can also play a key role in the MVP race. This past season, Luka Doncic suffered a significant injury, missing numerous games and falling short of the NBA’s 65-game minimum threshold to be eligible for regular-season rewards.
The 2025–26 MVP race is stacked with talent and storylines, from Shai defending his title to Jokic seeking redemption and Luka proving himself in Los Angeles. With dark horses like Giannis, Wembanyama, and Edwards in the mix, this season is proving to be one of the best.
Alexander Loveland is a Junior member of the Multimedia Journalism class.
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